4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 6 at the 76

Minnesota Vikings 0 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 3-J.Berry punts 46 yards to CIN 30, Center-42-A.DePaola. 23-D.Phillips to CIN 45 for 15 yards (43-C.Bynum).

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.02 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 76, worth -4.68 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.67 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 34, worth -1.67 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model