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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q2
New York Jets
4th & 1 at the 42
New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 3
What Actually Happened
(4:18) 23-T.Coleman up the middle to CAR 43 for -1 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos).
The Three Options
GO
+1.39 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.00 EP
- 31% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 42, worth -2.21 EP
KICK
-0.32 EP
- 54% chance to make a 59-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.81 EP
- 46% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.81 EP
PUNT
-0.58 EP
- Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.58 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
