4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
NYJ Away

New York Jets

HC Robert Saleh
@
CAR Home

Carolina Panthers

HC Matt Rhule
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte US ☀️ Clear Spread 3.5 O/U 44.5

Win Probability

NYJ
33.2%
CAR
66.8%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Zach Wilson (NYJ): -0.246 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Sam Darnold (CAR): +0.066 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 21
–
CAR 25
Projected margin: CAR by 4 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

NYJ

Sharrod Neasman S Out Hamstring
Keelan Cole WR Questionable Knee
La'Mical Perine RB Questionable Foot

CAR

Shi Smith WR Out Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 14
–
CAR 19

Prediction missed by 1 pts on margin, 13 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 07:30 FG CAR (7:30) 9-R.Santoso 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. NYJ 0 – CAR 3
  • Q2 04:14 TD CAR (4:14) 14-S.Darnold pass deep right to 11-R.Anderson for 57 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CAR 9
  • Q2 00:38 TD CAR (:38) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold up the middle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 0 – CAR 15
  • Q3 01:35 TD NYJ (1:35) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep right to 84-C.Davis for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ-77-M.Becton was injured during the play. His return is Doubtful. NYJ 6 – CAR 16
  • Q4 08:45 FG CAR (8:45) 9-R.Santoso 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton. NYJ 8 – CAR 19
  • Q4 02:00 TD NYJ (2:00) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass short right to 84-C.Davis for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 14 – CAR 19

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 5 at the 58
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (9:06) 3-J.Charlton punts 36 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 CAR 4th & 6 at the 33
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 75%

    (4:44) 3-J.Charlton punts 18 yards to NYJ 15, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30%

    (1:17) 6-M.Ammendola punts 65 yards to CAR 15, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 1 at the 4
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 98%

    (11:33) 14-S.Darnold FUMBLES (Aborted) at NYJ 8, RECOVERED by NYJ-98-S.Rankins at NYJ 9.

  • Q2 CAR 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.98 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 98%

    (7:30) 9-R.Santoso 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 42
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 54%

    (4:18) 23-T.Coleman up the middle to CAR 43 for -1 yards (97-Y.Gross-Matos).

  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (2:43) 6-M.Ammendola punts 40 yards to CAR 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 11 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (13:31) 3-J.Charlton punts 54 yards to NYJ 26, Center-44-J.Jansen. 10-B.Berrios to NYJ 41 for 15 yards (49-F.Luvu).

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 13 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (11:46) 6-M.Ammendola punts 37 yards to CAR 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 9 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (9:31) 3-J.Charlton punts 35 yards to NYJ 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

  • Q3 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (7:14) 6-M.Ammendola punts 57 yards to CAR 14, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 26 for 12 yards (43-D.Phillips).

  • Q3 CAR 4th & 12 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (6:13) 3-J.Charlton punts 46 yards to NYJ 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. Penalty on NYJ-47-B.Huff, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 7 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 97%

    (8:45) 9-R.Santoso 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.Jansen, Holder-3-J.Charlton.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 20 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (7:12) 6-M.Ammendola punts 42 yards to CAR 31, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 13-A.Erickson to CAR 46 for 15 yards (25-T.Johnson; 43-D.Phillips).

  • Q4 CAR 4th & 14 at the 43 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 51%

    (4:36) 3-J.Charlton punts 36 yards to NYJ 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 8 at the 75 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.67 EP
    p(convert) 39%

    (3:20) (Shotgun) 2-Z.Wilson pass deep left to 10-B.Berrios to 50 for 25 yards (34-S.Chandler).