Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 78

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 9

(2:43) 6-M.Ammendola punts 40 yards to CAR 38, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 13-A.Erickson.

The Three Options

GO -2.63 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.28 EP
68% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.47 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model