4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New York Jets 4th & 13 at the 53

New York Jets 0 – Carolina Panthers 16

What Actually Happened

(11:46) 6-M.Ammendola punts 37 yards to CAR 16, Center-42-T.Hennessy, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.19 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.36 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 53, worth -3.08 EP
KICK -1.60 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Carolina Panthers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.89 EP
PUNT -0.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Carolina Panthers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model