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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 9 at the 62

Carolina Panthers 16 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:31) 3-J.Charlton punts 35 yards to NYJ 27, Center-44-J.Jansen, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.22 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.71 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model