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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Carolina Panthers 4th & 12 at the 76

Carolina Panthers 16 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(6:13) 3-J.Charlton punts 46 yards to NYJ 30, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios. Penalty on NYJ-47-B.Huff, Running Into the Kicker, declined.

The Three Options

GO -2.28 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.96 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 76, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 34, worth -1.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model