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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 43

Carolina Panthers 19 – New York Jets 8

What Actually Happened

(4:36) 3-J.Charlton punts 36 yards to NYJ 7, Center-44-J.Jansen, downed by CAR-42-S.Franklin.

The Three Options

GO -0.14 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 43, worth -1.65 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.17 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.20 EP
PUNT -0.24 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.24 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model