4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 5 at the 58

Carolina Panthers 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(9:06) 3-J.Charlton punts 36 yards to NYJ 22, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 10-B.Berrios.

The Three Options

GO -0.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.95 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 58, worth -2.87 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (75 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model