Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 5 at the 62

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

(14:09) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP

45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.95 EP
55% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 62, worth -3.54 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model