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PIT Away

Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
@
BUF Home

Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
Sunday 2021-09-12 · 13:00 New Era Field, Orchard Park US 🌧 Rain Spread 6.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

PIT
36.2%
BUF
63.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to BUF: Josh Allen (BUF) +0.140 vs Ben Roethlisberger (PIT) -0.083 EPA/dropback
  • Wind 17 mph

Predicted Final Score

PIT 21
–
BUF 24
Projected margin: BUF by 3 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

PIT

Alex Highsmith LB Questionable Groin

BUF

Star Lotulelei DT Out Calf
Emmanuel Sanders WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

PIT 23
–
BUF 16

Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 13:34 FG BUF (13:34) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. PIT 0 – BUF 3
  • Q2 00:27 TD BUF (:27) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 13-G.Davis for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-T.Watt]. PIT 0 – BUF 9
  • Q3 10:26 FG PIT (10:26) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 3 – BUF 10
  • Q3 01:50 FG PIT (1:50) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 6 – BUF 10
  • Q4 11:24 TD PIT (11:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Roethlisberger pass short left to 18-D.Johnson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 12 – BUF 10
  • Q4 09:51 TD PIT (9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PIT 19 – BUF 10
  • Q4 05:26 FG BUF (5:26) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. PIT 20 – BUF 13
  • Q4 02:47 FG PIT (2:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin. PIT 23 – BUF 13
  • Q4 00:49 FG BUF (:49) 2-T.Bass 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack. PIT 23 – BUF 16

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 5 at the 19
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (13:34) 2-T.Bass 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 4 at the 53
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 16%

    (10:43) 6-P.Harvin punts 41 yards to BUF 12, Center-46-C.Kuntz, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 14 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (5:15) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 17 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (4:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 37 for 1 yard (31-J.Layne; 24-B.Snell).

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 1 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (2:53) 3-M.Haack punts 46 yards to PIT 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 13 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 5 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (14:09) 6-P.Harvin punts 39 yards to BUF 23, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 43
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 37%

    (11:05) 3-M.Haack punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 12 at the 95
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (9:39) 6-P.Harvin punts 30 yards to PIT 35, Center-46-C.Kuntz, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 20 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (6:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 4 at the 6
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.81 EP
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%

    (10:26) 9-C.Boswell 24 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 8 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 60%

    (5:54) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete deep middle to 13-G.Davis (20-C.Sutton).

  • Q3 PIT 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP
    p(convert) 53% p(FG) 98%

    (1:50) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 43%

    (13:46) 22-M.Breida left tackle to PIT 48 for -7 yards (20-C.Sutton).

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 7 at the 7
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 97%

    (5:26) 2-T.Bass 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 10 at the 27 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 79%

    (2:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 10 at the 64 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (2:19) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 1-E.Sanders to 50 for 14 yards (42-J.Pierre).