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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 43

Buffalo Bills 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:05) 3-M.Haack punts 36 yards to PIT 7, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.80 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.49 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 43, worth -2.07 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 60-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.95 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.17 EP