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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 55

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:12) 6-P.Harvin punts 46 yards to BUF 9, Center-46-C.Kuntz, downed by PIT-42-J.Pierre.

The Three Options

GO -1.42 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 55, worth -2.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.76 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 16, worth -0.76 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model