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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 2 at the 2

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(1:50) 9-C.Boswell 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO +3.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.78 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 2, worth +0.27 EP
KICK +1.80 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 21, worth -0.88 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.39 EP