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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 12 at the 77

Buffalo Bills 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 13

What Actually Happened

(9:51) 3-M.Haack punt is BLOCKED by 28-M.Killebrew, Center-69-R.Ferguson, RECOVERED by PIT-54-U.Gilbert at BUF 9. 54-U.Gilbert for 9 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO -2.34 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.67 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 77, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model