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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 27

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Buffalo Bills 13

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 9-C.Boswell 45 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-6-P.Harvin.

The Three Options

GO -0.29 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +2.92 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.68 EP
KICK +0.63 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 79% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.32 EP
  • 21% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.94 EP
PUNT -0.86 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model