Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 14 at the 55

Buffalo Bills 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

(5:15) 3-M.Haack punts 55 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.99 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +3.33 EP
72% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 55, worth -2.71 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model