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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 17 at the 87

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 6-P.Harvin punts 51 yards to BUF 36, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 19-I.McKenzie to BUF 37 for 1 yard (31-J.Layne; 24-B.Snell).

The Three Options

GO -3.42 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.04 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 87, worth -5.27 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.60 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model