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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 54

Buffalo Bills 3 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(2:53) 3-M.Haack punts 46 yards to PIT 8, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-R.McCloud to PIT 13 for 5 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +1.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 53, worth +2.90 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.74 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.41 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP