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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 5 at the 52

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 47, worth +3.13 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 52, worth -2.74 EP
KICK -1.33 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP