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ATL Away

Atlanta Falcons

HC Arthur Smith
@
TB Home

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 16:05 Raymond James Stadium, Tampa US 🌧 Rain Spread 13.5 O/U 52.0

Win Probability

ATL
16.0%
TB
84.0%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • ATL offense: -0.250 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to TB: Tom Brady (TB) +0.280 vs Matt Ryan (ATL) -0.420 EPA/dropback
  • TB defense: +0.134 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • ATL defense: +0.189 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • TB on 3 more days rest than ATL
  • Tom Brady (TB) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample

Predicted Final Score

ATL 17
–
TB 29
Projected margin: TB by 12 Projected total: 46

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

ATL

Frank Darby WR Out Calf

TB

Carlton Davis CB Questionable Hamstring

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 25
–
TB 48

Prediction missed by 11 pts on margin, 27 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:28 TD TB (12:28) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass deep right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 6
  • Q2 14:12 TD TB (14:12) 50-V.Vea reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short right to 87-R.Gronkowski for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – TB 13
  • Q2 11:54 TD ATL (11:54) 84-C.Patterson right end for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – TB 14
  • Q2 00:47 TD TB (:47) 72-J.Wells reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 7 – TB 20
  • Q2 00:04 FG ATL (:04) 7-Y.Koo 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Harris, Holder-9-C.Nizialek. ATL 10 – TB 21
  • Q3 12:47 TD TB (12:47) 12-T.Brady pass short left to 13-M.Evans for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 10 – TB 27
  • Q3 06:40 TD ATL (6:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – TB 28
  • Q3 01:53 TD ATL (1:53) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle to 84-C.Patterson for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN [45-D.White]. ATL 23 – TB 28
  • Q4 09:24 TD TB (9:24) (Shotgun) 12-T.Brady pass short right to 14-C.Godwin for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 25 – TB 34
  • Q4 08:02 TD TB (8:02) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right intended for 14-R.Gage INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards [92-W.Gholston] at ATL 31. 32-M.Edwards for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 25 – TB 41
  • Q4 04:08 TD TB (4:08) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short middle intended for 84-C.Patterson INTERCEPTED by 32-M.Edwards (24-C.Davis) at ATL 15. 32-M.Edwards for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on TB-32-M.Edwards, Taunting, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ATL 25 – TB 47

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 3 at the 66
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:20) 9-C.Nizialek punts 30 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 6 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (4:00) 9-C.Nizialek punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

  • Q1 TB 4th & 8 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (3:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 35-A.Williams to ATL 36 for 6 yards (30-D.Delaney).

  • Q1 ATL 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (1:12) (No Huddle) 2-M.Ryan up the middle to ATL 45 for no gain (50-V.Vea).

  • Q2 TB 4th & 5 at the 52
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 30%

    (10:12) 8-B.Pinion punts 41 yards to ATL 11, Center-46-C.Tinker, fair catch by 35-A.Williams.

  • Q2 ATL 4th & 16 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (4:25) 9-C.Nizialek punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-K.Smith.

  • Q3 ATL 4th & 3 at the 3
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 43% p(FG) 98%

    (6:40) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass short right to 18-C.Ridley for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 1 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (:29) 27-R.Jones up the middle to TB 46 for 5 yards (21-D.Harmon).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 17 at the 61
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to ATL 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-26-A.Adams.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 4 at the 90
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.32 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (11:01) 9-C.Nizialek punts 33 yards to ATL 43, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68%

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 2-M.Ryan pass incomplete short middle to 8-K.Pitts [45-D.White].

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 34 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 70% p(FG) 73%

    (4:14) 7-L.Fournette up the middle to ATL 34 for no gain (97-G.Jarrett, 96-T.Davison).

  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 52 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 30%

    (2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.Sharpe.