Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 16 at the 55

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(4:25) 9-C.Nizialek punts 40 yards to TB 15, Center-47-J.Harris, downed by ATL-40-K.Smith.

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.17 EP
76% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 55, worth -3.20 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model