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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 3 at the 66

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:20) 9-C.Nizialek punts 30 yards to TB 36, Center-47-J.Harris, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.11 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 66, worth -3.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.18 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 24, worth -1.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model