4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 1 at the 59

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(:29) 27-R.Jones up the middle to TB 46 for 5 yards (21-D.Harmon).

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.20 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -3.02 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model