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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 17 at the 61

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28 – Atlanta Falcons 25

What Actually Happened

(13:16) 8-B.Pinion punts 57 yards to ATL 4, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by TB-26-A.Adams.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.96 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 61, worth -3.29 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

PUNT -0.65 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 20, worth -0.65 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model