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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Atlanta Falcons
4th & 7 at the 52
Atlanta Falcons 25 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 48
What Actually Happened
(2:00) (Shotgun) 16-J.Rosen pass incomplete deep right to 4-T.Sharpe.
The Three Options
GO
-0.43 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +2.05 EP
- 64% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 52, worth -1.80 EP
KICK
-0.63 EP
- 30% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.10 EP
- 70% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -1.77 EP
PUNT
-0.56 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 15, worth -0.56 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
