4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 54

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:00) 9-C.Nizialek punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-47-J.Harris, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.94 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.62 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -3.16 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.95 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.95 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model