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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 8 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(3:04) 8-B.Pinion punts 48 yards to ATL 30, Center-46-C.Tinker. 35-A.Williams to ATL 36 for 6 yards (30-D.Delaney).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.68 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 78, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 35, worth -1.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model