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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 16

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(5:43) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (30-D.Jackson).

The Three Options

GO +2.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 16, worth -0.52 EP
KICK +1.79 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 26, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT -0.23 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.23 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model