4TH&DATA
EN ES
Home
BUF Away

Buffalo Bills

1-1 HC Sean McDermott
@
MIA Home

Miami Dolphins

1-1 HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 ET Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
31.8%
MIA
68.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.018 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19 12–26
–
MIA 26 19–33
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Star Lotulelei DT Questionable Calf
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Ankle
Efe Obada DE Questionable Calf

MIA

Will Fuller WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Preston Williams WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 35
–
MIA 0

Prediction missed by 42 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:41 TD BUF (12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 07:10 TD BUF (7:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. BUF 13 – MIA 0
  • Q3 11:54 TD BUF (11:54) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – MIA 0
  • Q4 13:45 TD BUF (13:45) 20-Z.Moss left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – MIA 0
  • Q4 07:49 TD BUF (7:49) 79-S.Brown reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Moss left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – MIA 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at MIA 46 for 20 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 33%

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle [57-A.Epenesa]. MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa was injured during the play.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:02) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 34 for 4 yards (54-A.Klein). PENALTY on MIA-29-Br.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 31.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (30-D.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:30) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 59%

    (1:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to BUF 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 66%

    (:11) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 18 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:31) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-P.Williams (24-T.Johnson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (:23) 17-J.Allen left guard to MIA 17 for 2 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 52-E.Roberts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 26-S.Ahmed.

    See the full breakdown →