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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
@
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Miami Dolphins

HC Brian Flores
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 Hard Rock Stadium, Miami Gardens US ☀️ Clear Spread -3.5 O/U 48.0

Win Probability

BUF
30.0%
MIA
70.0%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • BUF offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (28th in the league)
  • Josh Allen (BUF): -0.113 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • MIA defense: +0.018 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (17th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

BUF 19
–
MIA 26
Projected margin: MIA by 7 Projected total: 45

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

BUF

Star Lotulelei DT Questionable Calf
Gabe Davis WR Questionable Ankle
Efe Obada DE Questionable Calf

MIA

Will Fuller WR Out Not injury related - personal matter
Preston Williams WR Questionable Foot

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 35
–
MIA 0

Prediction missed by 42 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 12:41 TD BUF (12:41) 26-D.Singletary right guard for 46 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 6 – MIA 0
  • Q1 07:10 TD BUF (7:10) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass short middle to 14-S.Diggs for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN [91-E.Ogbah]. BUF 13 – MIA 0
  • Q3 11:54 TD BUF (11:54) 17-J.Allen pass short left to 88-D.Knox for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 20 – MIA 0
  • Q4 13:45 TD BUF (13:45) 20-Z.Moss left end for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 27 – MIA 0
  • Q4 07:49 TD BUF (7:49) 79-S.Brown reported in as eligible. 20-Z.Moss left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 34 – MIA 0

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 17 at the 82
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:00) 5-M.Palardy punts 48 yards to BUF 34, Center-44-B.Ferguson. 19-I.McKenzie pushed ob at MIA 46 for 20 yards (44-B.Ferguson).

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 2 at the 48
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 59% p(FG) 33%

    (10:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle [57-A.Epenesa]. MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa was injured during the play.

  • Q1 MIA 4th & 8 at the 73
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (5:24) 5-M.Palardy punts 47 yards to BUF 26, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 11 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:02) 3-M.Haack punts 42 yards to MIA 30, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 19-J.Grant pushed ob at MIA 34 for 4 yards (54-A.Klein). PENALTY on MIA-29-Br.Jones, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at MIA 31.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 2 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 55% p(FG) 94%

    (5:43) (Shotgun) 34-M.Brown right tackle to BUF 15 for 1 yard (30-D.Jackson).

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 1 at the 76
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.03 EP
    p(convert) 71%

    (3:30) 3-M.Haack punts 41 yards to MIA 35, Center-69-R.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q2 MIA 4th & 17 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 59%

    (1:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to BUF 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 9 at the 91
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 3 at the 35
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 66%

    (:11) 2-T.Bass 53 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-3-M.Haack.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 7 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (9:07) 5-M.Palardy punts 36 yards to BUF 23, Center-44-B.Ferguson, out of bounds.

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 18 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23%

    (6:31) 3-M.Haack punts 54 yards to end zone, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Touchback.

  • Q3 MIA 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 60%

    (4:05) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-P.Williams (24-T.Johnson).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 19
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 92%

    (:23) 17-J.Allen left guard to MIA 17 for 2 yards (57-B.Scarlett; 52-E.Roberts).

  • Q4 MIA 4th & 3 at the 19 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.09 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 92%

    (1:15) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 26-S.Ahmed.