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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 17 at the 38

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 14

What Actually Happened

(1:21) 5-M.Palardy punts 30 yards to BUF 8, Center-44-B.Ferguson, fair catch by 19-I.McKenzie.

The Three Options

GO -0.13 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 21, worth +4.43 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 38, worth -1.56 EP
KICK +0.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 47, worth -2.39 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
What Happened
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.48 EP