Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 9 at the 91

Buffalo Bills 14 – Miami Dolphins 0

What Actually Happened

(:38) 3-M.Haack punts 45 yards to MIA 46, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 17-J.Waddle MUFFS catch, touched at MIA 44, RECOVERED by BUF-25-T.Jones at MIA 42. The Replay Official reviewed the runner was not down by contact ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.

The Three Options

GO -3.25 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.27 EP
63% chance to fail: Miami Dolphins takes over around their own 91, worth -5.33 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model