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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 59

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 21

What Actually Happened

(4:05) (Shotgun) 14-J.Brissett pass incomplete short left to 18-P.Williams (24-T.Johnson).

The Three Options

GO +0.15 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +2.28 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 59, worth -3.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.58 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 18, worth -0.58 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model