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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 2 at the 48

Miami Dolphins 0 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(10:44) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass incomplete short right to 17-J.Waddle [57-A.Epenesa]. MIA-1-T.Tagovailoa was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.91 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.24 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 48, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.88 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.44 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT +0.12 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 14, worth +0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model