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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 2 at the 44

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Higgins (22-K.Vildor).

The Three Options

GO +1.07 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +2.97 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 44, worth -2.27 EP
KICK -0.57 EP
  • 49% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 51% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.76 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 12, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model