Win Probability
Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.
Key Insights
- QB edge to CIN: Andy Dalton (CHI) -0.266 vs Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.128 EPA/dropback
- CHI defense: +0.424 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- CIN offense: +0.037 EPA/play over its last 8 games (15th in the league)
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Predicted Final Score
The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.
Injury Report — Week 2
CIN
CHI
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 10 pts on margin, 6 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 10:01 TD CHI (10:01) (Shotgun) 14-A.Dalton pass short middle to 12-A.Robinson for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 0 – CHI 6
- Q3 08:28 FG CIN (8:28) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber. CIN 3 – CHI 7
- Q4 14:55 FG CHI (14:55) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CIN 3 – CHI 10
- Q4 11:07 TD CHI (11:07) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right intended for 83-T.Boyd INTERCEPTED by 58-R.Smith at CHI 47. 58-R.Smith for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 3 – CHI 16
- Q4 06:43 FG CHI (6:43) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell. CIN 3 – CHI 20
- Q4 04:47 TD CIN (4:47) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass deep right to 1-J.Chase for 42 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 9 – CHI 20
- Q4 03:43 TD CIN (3:43) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 85-T.Higgins for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CIN 16 – CHI 20
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 CIN 4th & 18 at the 43Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 51%
(3:29) 10-K.Huber punts 36 yards to CHI 7, Center-46-C.Harris, fair catch by 15-N.Webster.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 1 at the 32Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 76%
(12:31) (No Huddle) 1-J.Fields left guard to CIN 32 for no gain (93-W.Ray). Official measurement
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 2 at the 44Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 64% p(FG) 49%
(8:26) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 85-T.Higgins (22-K.Vildor).
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 14 at the 49Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 36%
(5:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CIN 4th & 3 at the 73Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.61 EPp(convert) 61%
(1:56) 10-K.Huber punts 39 yards to CHI 34, Center-46-C.Harris, out of bounds.
See the full breakdown → -
Q2 CHI 4th & 9 at the 48Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 34% p(FG) 39%
(:42) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to CIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.
See the full breakdown → -
Q3 CIN 4th & 4 at the 35Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EPp(convert) 51% p(FG) 70%
(8:28) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 10 at the 10Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%
(14:55) 2-C.Santos 28 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 14 at the 40Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.49 EPp(convert) 27% p(FG) 59%
(8:22) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to end zone, Center-48-P.Scales, Touchback.
See the full breakdown → -
Q4 CHI 4th & 4 at the 4Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EPp(convert) 42% p(FG) 98%
(6:43) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.
See the full breakdown →
