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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 14 at the 49

Chicago Bears 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(5:41) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 42 yards to CIN 7, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.66 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
KICK -0.92 EP
  • 36% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
  • 64% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.58 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model