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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 9 at the 48

Chicago Bears 7 – Cincinnati Bengals 0

What Actually Happened

(:42) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 40 yards to CIN 8, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 23-D.Phillips.

The Three Options

GO -0.22 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +2.95 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 48, worth -1.85 EP
KICK -0.24 EP
  • 39% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 61% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 49, worth -1.89 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 14, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model