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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cincinnati Bengals 4th & 4 at the 35

Cincinnati Bengals 0 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(8:28) 2-E.McPherson 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Harris, Holder-10-K.Huber.

The Three Options

GO +1.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.90 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 35, worth -1.76 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened
  • 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 30% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP