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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 4 at the 4

Chicago Bears 17 – Cincinnati Bengals 3

What Actually Happened

(6:43) 2-C.Santos 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-P.Scales, Holder-16-P.O'Donnell.

The Three Options

GO +2.34 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.67 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 4, worth -0.01 EP
KICK +1.69 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 21-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 21, worth -1.04 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.66 EP