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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 5 at the 41

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 11

What Actually Happened

(4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Cooper (26-A.Samuel).

The Three Options

GO +0.25 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 36, worth +3.37 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -0.28 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.91 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model