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DAL Away

Dallas Cowboys

HC Mike McCarthy
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

HC Brandon Staley
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 16:25 SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.0 O/U 55.0

Win Probability

DAL
50.0%
LAC
50.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DAL offense: +0.134 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • LAC offense: +0.072 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.094 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL on 3 more days rest than LAC
  • Justin Herbert (LAC) has only 1 prior start in the data — thin sample
  • QB edge to LAC: Justin Herbert (LAC) +0.212 vs Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.241 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

DAL 24
–
LAC 27
Projected margin: LAC by 3 Projected total: 51

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 2

DAL

Ty Nsekhe T Out Illness
Donovan Wilson S Questionable Groin
Damontae Kazee S Questionable Thigh

LAC

Chris Harris CB Out Shoulder
Justin Jones DT Doubtful Calf
Nasir Adderley S Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DAL 20
–
LAC 17

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 14 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:14 TD DAL (8:14) 20-T.Pollard right end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 6 – LAC 0
  • Q1 03:37 FG LAC (3:37) 16-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. DAL 7 – LAC 3
  • Q1 00:21 TD DAL (:21) 21-E.Elliott right tackle for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 13 – LAC 3
  • Q2 09:55 TD LAC (9:55) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL 14 – LAC 9
  • Q3 09:27 FG LAC (9:27) 16-T.Vizcaino 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. DAL 14 – LAC 14
  • Q4 10:30 FG DAL (10:30) 2-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 17 – LAC 14
  • Q4 03:58 FG LAC (3:58) 16-T.Vizcaino 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. DAL 17 – LAC 17
  • Q4 00:04 FG DAL (:04) 2-G.Zuerlein 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger. DAL 20 – LAC 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 LAC 4th & 4 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46% p(FG) 83%

    (3:37) 16-T.Vizcaino 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 5 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 56%

    (4:58) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short right to 19-A.Cooper (26-A.Samuel).

  • Q2 LAC 4th & 8 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 86%

    (:07) 16-T.Vizcaino 44 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. PENALTY on LAC-79-T.Pipkins, Face Mask (15 Yards), 15 yards, enforced at DAL 34.

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 1 at the 66
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73%

    (13:41) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 37 for 3 yards (42-K.Neal).

  • Q3 LAC 4th & 11 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 95%

    (9:27) 16-T.Vizcaino 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 15 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 94%

    (10:30) 2-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

  • Q4 LAC 4th & 11 at the 11 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 97%

    (3:58) 16-T.Vizcaino 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.