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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 1 at the 66

Los Angeles Chargers 11 – Dallas Cowboys 14

What Actually Happened

(13:41) 10-J.Herbert up the middle to LAC 37 for 3 yards (42-K.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 73% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.95 EP
  • 27% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.82 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -0.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model