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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 15 at the 16

Dallas Cowboys 14 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(10:30) 2-G.Zuerlein 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-J.McQuaide, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +0.78 EP
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.34 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 16, worth -1.03 EP
KICK +1.45 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.62 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.45 EP
PUNT -0.56 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model