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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 9 at the 57

Denver Broncos 3 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(7:34) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 14 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).

The Three Options

GO -0.79 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.63 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 57, worth -3.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -1.03 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -1.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model