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Denver Broncos

2-0 HC Vic Fangio
@
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Jacksonville Jaguars

0-2 HC Urban Meyer
Sunday 2021-09-19 · 13:00 ET TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville US 🌧 Rain Spread -6.0 O/U 45.0

Win Probability

DEN
74.2%
JAX
25.8%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • QB edge to DEN: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) -0.074 vs Teddy Bridgewater (DEN) +0.614 EPA/dropback
  • DEN offense: +0.265 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • JAX defense: +0.141 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (23rd in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

DEN 29 22–36
–
JAX 19 12–26
Projected margin: DEN by 10 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 2

DEN

Graham Glasgow G Doubtful Illness
Bradley Chubb LB Questionable Ankle
Jonas Griffith LB Questionable Back

JAX

Tre Herndon CB Out Knee
Lerentee McCray DE Questionable Hamstring
Jordan Smith DE Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 2 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

DEN 23
–
JAX 13

Prediction missed by 0 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:27 TD JAX (9:27) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass deep right to 11-M.Jones for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 0 – JAX 6
  • Q1 00:29 FG DEN (:29) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 3 – JAX 7
  • Q2 02:00 TD DEN (2:00) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short left to 81-T.Patrick for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN [90-M.Brown]. DEN 9 – JAX 7
  • Q3 12:41 TD DEN (12:41) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 87-N.Fant for 14 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 16 – JAX 7
  • Q3 01:08 FG DEN (1:08) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 20 – JAX 7
  • Q4 05:45 FG DEN (5:45) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin. DEN 23 – JAX 7
  • Q4 05:42 TD JAX 8-B.McManus kicks 67 yards from DEN 35 to JAX -2. 39-J.Agnew for 102 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DEN 23 – JAX 13

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DEN 4th & 14 at the 14
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 95%

    (:29) 8-B.McManus 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 12 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (14:50) 9-L.Cooke punts 44 yards to DEN 33, Center-46-R.Matiscik, fair catch by 11-D.Spencer.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 11 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (11:47) 6-S.Martin punts 41 yards to JAX 13, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, downed by DEN-12-M.Ford. PENALTY on DEN-12-M.Ford, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 16 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24% p(FG) 69%

    (8:39) 4-J.Lambo 52 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 9 at the 57
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (7:34) 6-S.Martin punts 45 yards to JAX 12, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer. 39-J.Agnew to JAX 14 for 2 yards (47-J.Jewell).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 3 at the 79
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56%

    (6:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 20 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 5 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 53%

    (:46) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence scrambles up the middle to DEN 30 for 10 yards (22-K.Jackson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 JAX 4th & 10 at the 30
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 30% p(FG) 77%

    (:24) 4-J.Lambo 48 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DEN 4th & 1 at the 53
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 75% p(FG) 22%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to JAX 23 for 30 yards (5-R.Ford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 10 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (10:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 9 at the 65
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:51) 6-S.Martin punts 48 yards to JAX 17, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 DEN 4th & 8 at the 27
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 82%

    (1:08) 8-B.McManus 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 JAX 4th & 9 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (:15) 9-L.Cooke punts 64 yards to DEN 10, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer ran ob at DEN 35 for 25 yards (54-D.Wilson).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 56
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP
    p(convert) 76%

    (13:33) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 2 at the 22
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.57 EP
    p(convert) 62% p(FG) 89%

    (5:45) 8-B.McManus 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, Holder-6-S.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DEN 4th & 1 at the 16 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 72% p(FG) 94%

    (2:58) 5-T.Bridgewater up the middle to JAX 15 for 1 yard (52-D.Hamilton).

    See the full breakdown →