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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 79

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(6:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 63 yards to DEN 16, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 11-D.Spencer to DEN 20 for 4 yards (46-R.Matiscik).

The Three Options

GO -1.35 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.98 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 79, worth -4.24 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.64 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 36, worth -1.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model