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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 53

Denver Broncos 10 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(:02) (Shotgun) 5-T.Bridgewater pass short right to 25-M.Gordon to JAX 23 for 30 yards (5-R.Ford).

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +0.55 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 53, worth -0.82 EP
KICK +0.19 EP
  • 22% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.98 EP
  • 78% chance to miss: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 49, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 15, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model