Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Denver Broncos 17

(10:39) 9-L.Cooke punts 56 yards to DEN 19, Center-46-R.Matiscik, downed by JAX-5-R.Ford.

The Three Options

GO -2.16 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.76 EP
65% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 75, worth -4.27 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model