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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Denver Broncos 4th & 1 at the 56

Denver Broncos 20 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

What Actually Happened

(13:33) 6-S.Martin punts 46 yards to JAX 10, Center-46-J.Bobenmoyer, fair catch by 39-J.Agnew.

The Three Options

GO +0.66 EP
Model's Pick
  • 76% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +1.83 EP
  • 24% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 56, worth -3.00 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.97 EP
What Happened
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 17, worth -0.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.63 EP